Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints22
- Anfernee SimonsAssists4
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Mavericks- Jaden HardyPoints25
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists5
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–117
- Q41.1P.J. Washington defensive rebound111–117
- Q44.0Anfernee Simons misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot111–117
- Q410.1Spencer Dinwiddie makes free throw 2 of 2111–117
- Q410.1Spencer Dinwiddie makes free throw 1 of 2111–116
- Q410.1Shaedon Sharpe personal take foul111–115
- Q426.1Toumani Camara makes driving dunk111–115
- Q431.1Trail Blazers Full timeout109–115
- Q431.1Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 1109–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:04Jaden Hardy makes 22-foot three point shot (Quentin Grimes assists)POR 91 – 86 DAL · DAL 28% → 39% +12DAL 28% → 39%+12 pts
- Q49:04Shaedon Sharpe makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kris Murray assists)POR 97 – 88 DAL · POR 68% → 80% +12POR 68% → 80%+12 pts
- Q45:09Jaden Hardy makes 4-foot two point shot (Naji Marshall assists)POR 103 – 99 DAL · DAL 22% → 33% +11DAL 22% → 33%+11 pts
- Q44:48Shaedon Sharpe makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 106 – 99 DAL · POR 68% → 83% +15POR 68% → 83%+15 pts
- Q41:58P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)POR 109 – 112 DAL · DAL 55% → 81% +27DAL 55% → 81%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -7.5
- ML POR +240 / DAL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -7.5
- DAL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 77.0%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -253
- POR +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 106.5 – 114.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | −91 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −6 · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +210 Elo | DAL 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.4 | Points scored | 116.48th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 111.914th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.9 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 114.85th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 110.311th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 26th of 305–15 | Road vs home | 11–610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−1 Elo- Robert Williams III rest−6 Elo
Mavericks
−91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–17 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 11–10 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–6 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.