Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints17
- Quentin GrimesAssists6
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds12
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points35
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Assists5
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–119
- Q42.1shot clock turnover104–119
- Q425.1Quentin Grimes lost ball turnover (Scotty Pippen Jr. steals)104–119
- Q428.1Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)104–119
- Q448.1Brandon Williams makes free throw 2 of 2104–116
- Q448.1Cam Spencer enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.103–116
- Q448.1Jake LaRavia enters the game for Luke Kennard103–116
- Q448.1Mavericks offensive team rebound103–116
- Q448.1Brandon Williams misses free throw 1 of 2103–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:08Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 53 – 52 MEM · DAL 36% → 44% +8DAL 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q229.0Jay Huff makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)DAL 55 – 56 MEM · MEM 53% → 62% +9MEM 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q310:22Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)DAL 60 – 63 MEM · MEM 58% → 67% +9MEM 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q49:38Jaden Hardy makes 24-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 89 – 95 MEM · DAL 12% → 20% +8DAL 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q47:23Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)DAL 92 – 97 MEM · DAL 12% → 22% +10DAL 12% → 22%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML DAL +155 / MEM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- MEM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 58.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -166
- DAL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 114.0 – 118.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −100 | +27 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MEM crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +61 Elo | MEM 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 123.21st of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 115.021st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +8.24th of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 114.56th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 106.84th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.4 | Pace | 107.71st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 14–43rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–16 | 23–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–10 | 17–8 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.