Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints21
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Mavericks- Quentin GrimesPoints23
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists8
- Quentin GrimesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–118
- Q41.1shot clock turnover97–118
- Q425.0Dalton Knecht bad pass (Jaden Hardy steals)97–118
- Q437.2Brandon Williams makes 2-foot two point shot (Quentin Grimes assists)97–118
- Q454.1Dwight Powell defensive rebound97–116
- Q457.0Gabe Vincent misses 23-foot three point jumper97–116
- Q41:11Brandon Williams makes layup (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)97–116
- Q41:12Olivier-Maxence Prosper offensive rebound97–114
- Q41:15Quentin Grimes misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot97–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:45Naji Marshall makes 26-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)LAL 52 – 60 DAL · DAL 52% → 61% +9DAL 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q36:45Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 62 – 69 DAL · LAL 29% → 39% +9LAL 29% → 39%+9 pts
- Q35:27Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)LAL 66 – 74 DAL · DAL 56% → 66% +10DAL 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q34:49Jaden Hardy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)LAL 66 – 77 DAL · DAL 67% → 75% +9DAL 67% → 75%+9 pts
- Q48:03Dalton Knecht makes 22-foot three point shot (Gabe Vincent assists)LAL 90 – 98 DAL · LAL 11% → 20% +9LAL 11% → 20%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML LAL -245 / DAL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- LAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- LAL: Elo 58.3%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -213
- DAL +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.0 – 106.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | −119 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +58 Elo | LAL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 116.48th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 112.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +4.17th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 114.46th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 110.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.9 | Pace | 101.58th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 10–610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−119 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–17 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 11–10 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.