Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints30
- Austin ReavesAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints33
- Jalen GreenAssists4
- Amen ThompsonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–119
- Q44.1Jalen Green enters the game for Steven Adams115–119
- Q44.1Alperen Sengun enters the game for Amen Thompson115–119
- Q44.1Anthony Davis turnover115–119
- Q44.1Anthony Davis offensive foul115–119
- Q45.1Steven Adams enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate115–119
- Q45.1Lakers Full timeout115–119
- Q45.1LeBron James defensive rebound115–119
- Q45.1Fred VanVleet misses free throw 2 of 2115–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:33Aaron Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)LAL 89 – 94 HOU · HOU 64% → 75% +11HOU 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q44:05Dorian Finney-Smith makes 8-foot two point shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 105 – 108 HOU · LAL 16% → 27% +10LAL 16% → 27%+10 pts
- Q43:36Amen Thompson makes dunkLAL 106 – 110 HOU · HOU 68% → 80% +12HOU 68% → 80%+12 pts
- Q42:54Fred VanVleet makes 16-foot step back jumpshotLAL 106 – 112 HOU · HOU 82% → 91% +9HOU 82% → 91%+9 pts
- Q42:33Jalen Green makes 28-foot three pointerLAL 108 – 115 HOU · HOU 84% → 95% +12HOU 84% → 95%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML LAL +155 / HOU -185
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -166
- LAL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 106.5 – 111.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | +10 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Tari Eason −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +105 Elo | HOU 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 112.115th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 106.43rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +5.66th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 110.018th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 104.52nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 100.915th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 12–68th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+10 Elo- Tari Eason lower leg−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–17 | 20–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 15–10 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.