Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints26
- Anfernee SimonsAssists5
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints23
- Dejounte MurrayAssists5
- Javonte GreenRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–100
- Q41.1Jordan Hawkins lost ball turnover (Scoot Henderson steals)119–100
- Q414.1Scoot Henderson makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot119–100
- Q437.1Antonio Reeves makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot117–100
- Q441.1Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound117–97
- Q443.1Scoot Henderson misses two point shot117–97
- Q452.1Antonio Reeves makes 24-foot three point jumper (Karlo Matkovic assists)117–97
- Q41:03Scoot Henderson makes two point shot117–94
- Q41:12Antonio Reeves makes free throw 1 of 1115–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)POR 3 – 0 NO · POR 47% → 53% +6POR 47% → 53%+6 pts
- Q19:11CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)POR 10 – 7 NO · NO 40% → 47% +6NO 40% → 47%+6 pts
- Q18:03Shaedon Sharpe makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Toumani Camara assists)POR 16 – 7 NO · POR 60% → 66% +6POR 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q17:29Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)POR 19 – 9 NO · POR 62% → 68% +6POR 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q15:52Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 26 – 13 NO · POR 68% → 74% +6POR 68% → 74%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NO -1.5
- ML POR +105 / NO -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -0.5
- NO 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NO: Elo 48.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NO -114
- POR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.0 – 112.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | −53 | POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +11 Elo | POR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 107.228th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 117.124th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.7 | Margin | −9.929th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 106.028th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 115.828th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.716th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–15 | Road vs home | 5–1529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−14 Elo- Donovan Clingan rest−6 Elo
Pelicans
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–17 | 14–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 11–18 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–4 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.