Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints32
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Pelicans- Dejounte MurrayPoints29
- Dejounte MurrayAssists6
- Yves MissiRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–97
- Q46.0Zion Williamson lost ball turnover (Donte DiVincenzo steals)104–97
- Q46.2Zion Williamson offensive rebound104–97
- Q410.0Brandon Boston misses 22-foot three point jumper104–97
- Q414.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2104–97
- Q414.1Jaden McDaniels enters the game for Mike Conley103–97
- Q414.1Rudy Gobert enters the game for Naz Reid103–97
- Q414.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2103–97
- Q414.1Dejounte Murray personal foul102–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20.2Dejounte Murray makes 17-foot pullup jump shotMIN 53 – 54 NO · NO 37% → 45% +9NO 37% → 45%+9 pts
- Q38:05Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 60 – 64 NO · MIN 35% → 44% +9MIN 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q36:55Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 65 – 64 NO · MIN 50% → 60% +10MIN 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q35:57Jaden McDaniels makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 70 – 66 NO · MIN 60% → 70% +9MIN 60% → 70%+9 pts
- Q32:15Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 78 – 73 NO · MIN 63% → 74% +10MIN 63% → 74%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML MIN -175 / NO +145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- NO +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.5 – 109.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | +4 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +31 Elo | MIN 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.2 | Points scored | 107.526th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 117.525th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −10.029th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 106.328th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 116.228th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.7 | Pace | 100.618th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 5–1428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–22 | 14–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.