New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints25
- Dejounte MurrayAssists12
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds10
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints28
- Jared ButlerAssists5
- Alex SarrRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–98
- Q43.1shot clock turnover110–98
- Q426.1Yves Missi defensive rebound110–98
- Q429.1Kyshawn George misses 35-foot three point jumper110–98
- Q433.1Carlton Carrington defensive rebound110–98
- Q436.1CJ McCollum misses 14-foot pullup jump shot110–98
- Q458.1Yves Missi defensive rebound110–98
- Q41:01Corey Kispert misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot110–98
- Q41:04Carlton Carrington offensive rebound110–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:51Alexandre Sarr makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)NO 10 – 11 WSH · WSH 30% → 35% +6WSH 30% → 35%+6 pts
- Q15:50Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 15 – 17 WSH · NO 56% → 62% +7NO 56% → 62%+7 pts
- Q14:10Carlton Carrington makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Justin Champagnie assists)NO 19 – 22 WSH · WSH 34% → 41% +6WSH 34% → 41%+6 pts
- Q12:26Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 24 – 22 WSH · NO 63% → 70% +6NO 63% → 70%+6 pts
- Q11:37Trey Murphy III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)NO 27 – 22 WSH · NO 70% → 76% +6NO 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NO -5.5
- ML NO -230 / WSH +195
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NO 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.1 pts
- NO: Elo 49.2%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- NO -206
- WSH +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 119.0 – 113.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1325 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | −5 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | NO crossed 1 time zone and WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.4 | Points scored | 109.322nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 122.230th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.6 | Margin | −13.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.2 | Offense rating | 104.330th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 116.728th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.7 | Pace | 104.34th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–15 | Road vs home | 5–1227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–22 | 13–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | — |
| Underdog | 11–17 | 13–19 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.