Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints32
- Coby WhiteAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints30
- Jonas ValanciunasAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–125
- Q420.1Matas Buzelis makes 29-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)107–125
- Q429.0Dalen Terry defensive rebound104–125
- Q432.1Johnny Davis misses 27-foot three point jumper104–125
- Q452.0Dalen Terry makes free throw 2 of 2104–125
- Q452.0Bulls offensive team rebound103–125
- Q452.0Dalen Terry misses free throw 1 of 2103–125
- Q452.0Tristan Vukcevic shooting foul103–125
- Q459.1Anthony Gill makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)103–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:32Justin Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Carlton Carrington assists)CHI 51 – 58 WSH · WSH 49% → 58% +9WSH 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q310:32Nikola Vucevic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 56 – 60 WSH · CHI 42% → 51% +9CHI 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q310:20Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alexandre Sarr assists)CHI 56 – 63 WSH · WSH 49% → 58% +9WSH 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q31:10Carlton Carrington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)CHI 78 – 88 WSH · WSH 67% → 77% +10WSH 67% → 77%+10 pts
- Q334.1Corey Kispert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)CHI 80 – 91 WSH · WSH 72% → 81% +9WSH 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -6.5
- ML CHI -245 / WSH +200
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -6.5
- CHI 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 74.4%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -213
- WSH +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 124.5 – 118.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1308 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −47 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +185 Elo | CHI 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 108.424th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 122.430th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.5 | Margin | −14.030th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 103.630th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 117.029th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.6 | Pace | 104.24th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 4–1228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–16 | 12–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | — |
| Underdog | 12–14 | 12–18 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.