Washington Wizards at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints26
- Jordan PooleAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints50
- Dejounte MurrayAssists12
- Yves MissiRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–132
- Q410.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)120–132
- Q426.1shot clock turnover117–132
- Q449.1Yves Missi defensive rebound117–132
- Q452.0Jared Butler misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot117–132
- Q41:07Dejounte Murray makes free throw 2 of 2117–132
- Q41:07Jared Butler enters the game for Kyle Kuzma117–131
- Q41:07Anthony Gill enters the game for Alexandre Sarr117–131
- Q41:07Johnny Davis enters the game for Jordan Poole117–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:46Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)WSH 68 – 65 NO · NO 50% → 59% +9NO 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q338.1Corey Kispert makes 29-foot three point jumper (Carlton Carrington assists)WSH 97 – 97 NO · WSH 27% → 37% +11WSH 27% → 37%+11 pts
- Q410:30Corey Kispert makes 2-foot layup (Malcolm Brogdon assists)WSH 101 – 98 NO · WSH 43% → 52% +9WSH 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q410:20Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three pointer (Jose Alvarado assists)WSH 101 – 101 NO · NO 48% → 61% +13NO 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q49:11Herbert Jones makes 26-foot three point shot (Brandon Boston assists)WSH 101 – 106 NO · NO 69% → 81% +11NO 69% → 81%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NO -7.5
- ML WSH +260 / NO -320
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- NO 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.3 pts
- NO: Elo 55.0%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- NO -274
- WSH +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.5 – 120.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1335 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | −52 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +35 Elo | NO 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 65.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30108.9 | Points scored | 106.728th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.9 | Points allowed | 118.025th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−13.0 | Margin | −11.329th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.9 | Offense rating | 105.528th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 116.729th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.4 | Pace | 100.616th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–12 | Road vs home | 4–1429th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–18 | 12–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 13–18 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.