Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints24
- Ben SimmonsAssists11
- Ben SimmonsRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints39
- Scoot HendersonAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–114
- Q411.1Jalen Wilson defensive rebound132–114
- Q413.2Rayan Rupert misses 13-foot two point shot132–114
- Q432.0Tosan Evbuomwan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Reece Beekman assists)132–114
- Q445.1Jabari Walker out of bounds lost ball turnover129–114
- Q454.1Reece Beekman enters the game for Noah Clowney129–114
- Q454.1Dariq Whitehead enters the game for D'Angelo Russell129–114
- Q454.1Keon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2129–114
- Q454.1Keon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2128–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:45Noah Clowney makes 29-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)BKN 73 – 66 POR · BKN 55% → 64% +9BKN 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q38:53Shaedon Sharpe makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 75 – 71 POR · POR 35% → 44% +9POR 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q38:42Noah Clowney makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 78 – 71 POR · BKN 56% → 65% +9BKN 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q36:36Cameron Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)BKN 85 – 76 POR · BKN 63% → 72% +9BKN 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q33:09Tyrese Martin makes 24-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)BKN 91 – 82 POR · BKN 66% → 75% +10BKN 66% → 75%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML BKN +140 / POR -170
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1.5
- POR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- POR: Elo 55.7%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- POR -151
- BKN +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 108.5 – 112.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1363 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | −18 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −16 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +40 Elo | POR 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.3 | Points scored | 108.225th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 116.424th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.4 | Margin | −8.228th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 107.126th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 115.326th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 101.011th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–14 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−18 Elo- Deni Avdija right ankle sprain−16 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–18 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 20–19 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–2 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.