Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints27
- Nikola VucevicAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints25
- Scoot HendersonAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–113
- Q47.0shot clock turnover102–113
- Q429.0Shaedon Sharpe defensive rebound102–113
- Q430.1Ayo Dosunmu misses two point shot102–113
- Q434.1Scoot Henderson bad pass (Zach LaVine steals)102–113
- Q455.1Scoot Henderson defensive rebound102–113
- Q458.1Zach LaVine misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot102–113
- Q41:10Deni Avdija makes driving layup102–113
- Q41:26Patrick Williams makes 1-foot driving dunk (Nikola Vucevic assists)102–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:13Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)CHI 53 – 56 POR · POR 41% → 50% +9POR 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q38:11Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)CHI 57 – 65 POR · POR 57% → 67% +9POR 57% → 67%+9 pts
- Q36:09Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three pointerCHI 66 – 68 POR · CHI 41% → 51% +10CHI 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q35:39Matas Buzelis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 69 – 70 POR · CHI 44% → 55% +10CHI 44% → 55%+10 pts
- Q33:37Ayo Dosunmu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 75 – 75 POR · CHI 47% → 58% +11CHI 47% → 58%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML CHI -190 / POR +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -5
- CHI 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- CHI: Elo 68.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CHI -170
- POR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 120.5 – 116.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1328 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | −32 | CHI: Missing Lonzo Ball −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +138 Elo | CHI 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 107.826th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 117.124th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.0 | Margin | −9.329th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 106.727th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 115.927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.4 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 8–1223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+12 Elo- Lonzo Ball left knee injury management−7 Elo
Trail Blazers
−32 Elo- Donovan Clingan left ankle sprain−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 20–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–0 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.