Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Keaton WallacePoints27
- Onyeka OkongwuAssists7
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds13
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints16
- Zach LaVineAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–94
- Q41.0shot clock turnover110–94
- Q422.1Keaton Wallace defensive rebound110–94
- Q424.1Dalen Terry misses two point shot110–94
- Q427.2Chris Duarte defensive rebound110–94
- Q430.2Matas Buzelis blocks Dyson Daniels 's 1-foot driving layup110–94
- Q453.0Jevon Carter out of bounds lost ball turnover110–94
- Q455.2Keaton Wallace makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot110–94
- Q41:05Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound108–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:20Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three pointerATL 78 – 69 CHI · ATL 61% → 71% +10ATL 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q32:51Daeqwon Plowden makes 24-foot three point jumper (Garrison Mathews assists)ATL 81 – 71 CHI · ATL 65% → 75% +10ATL 65% → 75%+10 pts
- Q32:12Daeqwon Plowden makes 22-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 84 – 71 CHI · ATL 76% → 84% +8ATL 76% → 84%+8 pts
- Q411:48Onyeka Okongwu makes 24-foot three point jumper (David Roddy assists)ATL 89 – 78 CHI · ATL 73% → 82% +9ATL 73% → 82%+9 pts
- Q45:24Patrick Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)ATL 99 – 91 CHI · CHI 6% → 14% +8CHI 6% → 14%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -6.5
- ML ATL +200 / CHI -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- CHI: Elo 60.5%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -214
- ATL +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 114.5 – 121.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHI and ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −64 | +13 | ATL: Missing Larry Nance Jr. −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +74 Elo | CHI 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 118.04th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 120.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −2.822nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 114.322nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.4 | Pace | 105.52nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 8–1324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−64 Elo- Larry Nance Jr. right hand surgery−6 Elo
Bulls
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–23 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 26–13 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–4 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.