New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints32
- Zion WilliamsonAssists9
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds7
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints25
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Nikola VucevicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–113
- Q40.1Dejounte Murray lost ball turnover (Josh Giddey steals)119–113
- Q42.1Dejounte Murray defensive rebound119–113
- Q42.1Zach LaVine misses 22-foot pullup jump shot119–113
- Q48.0Bulls Full timeout119–113
- Q48.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2119–113
- Q48.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2118–113
- Q48.0Zach LaVine shooting foul117–113
- Q49.0Lonzo Ball bad pass (Trey Murphy III steals)117–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:10Brandon Boston makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 80 – 79 CHI · NO 41% → 52% +11NO 41% → 52%+11 pts
- Q31:14Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three pointerNO 83 – 81 CHI · NO 44% → 56% +12NO 44% → 56%+12 pts
- Q316.0Coby White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)NO 83 – 86 CHI · CHI 52% → 64% +12CHI 52% → 64%+12 pts
- Q49:07Jose Alvarado makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 95 – 90 CHI · NO 58% → 71% +13NO 58% → 71%+13 pts
- Q48:51Jose Alvarado makes 27-foot three point shot (Zion Williamson assists)NO 98 – 90 CHI · NO 72% → 83% +11NO 72% → 83%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML NO +105 / CHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4
- CHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.7 pts
- CHI: Elo 66.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -114
- NO +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 120.5 – 122.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1393 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +29 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +115 Elo | CHI 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.7 | Points scored | 118.24th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 120.829th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.5 | Margin | −2.721st of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 114.322nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.5 | Pace | 105.52nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–16 | Road vs home | 8–1223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–24 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 13–18 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 22–18 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–2 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.