New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints30
- Dejounte MurrayAssists8
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds9
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints38
- Jaylen BrownAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–120
- Q41.1Pelicans offensive team rebound119–120
- Q41.1CJ McCollum misses two point shot119–120
- Q46.1Daniel Theis enters the game for Jose Alvarado119–120
- Q46.1CJ McCollum enters the game for Javonte Green119–120
- Q46.1Al Horford enters the game for Payton Pritchard119–120
- Q46.1Jrue Holiday enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis119–120
- Q46.15 second violation119–120
- Q46.1Jose Alvarado enters the game for Daniel Theis119–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:35Jose Alvarado makes 27-foot three point shot (CJ McCollum assists)NO 100 – 98 BOS · NO 26% → 39% +13NO 26% → 39%+13 pts
- Q45:57Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 105 – 106 BOS · NO 15% → 28% +13NO 15% → 28%+13 pts
- Q44:41Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three pointerNO 110 – 110 BOS · NO 19% → 35% +16NO 19% → 35%+16 pts
- Q42:28Jayson Tatum makes 2-foot dunk (Kristaps Porzingis assists)NO 115 – 116 BOS · BOS 52% → 69% +18BOS 52% → 69%+18 pts
- Q41:09Jayson Tatum makes 1-foot dunkNO 115 – 118 BOS · BOS 70% → 88% +18BOS 70% → 88%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -14.5
- ML NO +750 / BOS -1400
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10
- BOS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 83.5%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -793
- NO +793 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 108.0 – 122.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +17 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +282 Elo | BOS 83.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 85.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 85.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 88.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.4 | Points scored | 117.95th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 108.46th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.7 | Margin | +9.53rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 117.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 108.15th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.5 | Pace | 99.523rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–15 | Road vs home | 13–78th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–24 | 16–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 12–18 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18 | 16–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.