Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints24
- DeMar DeRozanAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds28
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints28
- Jaylen BrownAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–97
- Q40.0Celtics offensive team rebound114–97
- Q40.0Payton Pritchard misses 37-foot three point pullup jump shot114–97
- Q44.0shot clock turnover114–97
- Q428.0Sam Hauser makes 4-foot two point shot (Payton Pritchard assists)114–97
- Q437.1Keegan Murray makes 28-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)114–95
- Q458.1Xavier Tillman lost ball turnover (DeMar DeRozan steals)111–95
- Q41:05DeMar DeRozan makes 28-foot three point jumper (Trey Lyles assists)111–95
- Q41:29Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound108–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:46Devin Carter makes 29-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 79 – 76 BOS · SAC 31% → 43% +12SAC 31% → 43%+12 pts
- Q411:13Devin Carter makes 28-foot three pointerSAC 82 – 76 BOS · SAC 44% → 57% +13SAC 44% → 57%+13 pts
- Q48:55Domantas Sabonis makes 29-foot three point jumperSAC 87 – 79 BOS · SAC 57% → 71% +13SAC 57% → 71%+13 pts
- Q48:38Jaylen Brown makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 87 – 81 BOS · BOS 28% → 37% +9BOS 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q48:23Keegan Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 90 – 81 BOS · SAC 63% → 76% +13SAC 63% → 76%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -12.5
- ML SAC +475 / BOS -750
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9
- BOS 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 80.5%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -507
- SAC +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 106.5 – 119.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1660 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +28 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −24 | SAC crossed 3 time zones and BOS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +246 Elo | BOS 80.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 79.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 118.54th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 108.35th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +10.23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 118.13rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 107.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.523rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 13–66th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–22 | 16–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–18 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 19–18 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.