New Orleans Pelicans at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints38
- Jose AlvaradoAssists9
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds10
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists12
- Paul GeorgeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–115
- Q40.0(00:00) [Pelicans] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)123–115
- Q411.2Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot three pointer123–115
- Q415.1CJ McCollum makes 12-foot step back jumpshot (Javonte Green assists)123–112
- Q436.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2121–112
- Q436.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2121–111
- Q436.1Yves Missi shooting foul121–110
- Q447.1Dejounte Murray makes 1-foot two point shot121–110
- Q41:00Dejounte Murray defensive rebound119–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:21Paul George makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Eric Gordon assists)NO 76 – 72 PHI · PHI 36% → 47% +11PHI 36% → 47%+11 pts
- Q31:38Eric Gordon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)NO 78 – 75 PHI · PHI 39% → 50% +12PHI 39% → 50%+12 pts
- Q328.0Reggie Jackson makes 24-foot three pointer (Paul George assists)NO 84 – 78 PHI · PHI 26% → 37% +11PHI 26% → 37%+11 pts
- Q30.2Jose Alvarado makes 27-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 87 – 78 PHI · NO 64% → 75% +11NO 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q410:26Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)NO 90 – 83 PHI · PHI 20% → 30% +11PHI 20% → 30%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -6.5
- ML NO +230 / PHI -290
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5.5
- PHI 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 71.0%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -245
- NO +245 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 106.5 – 113.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −64 | −42 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +156 Elo | PHI 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 107.426th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 110.510th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.1 | Margin | −3.122nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.0 | Offense rating | 108.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 111.214th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.5 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–15 | Road vs home | 6–1024th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−42 Elo- Andre Drummond left toe−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–24 | 14–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 11–18 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–0 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.