Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jared ButlerPoints26
- Jared ButlerAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds14
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints29
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–109
- Q40.0Wizards offensive team rebound103–109
- Q40.0Kelly Oubre Jr. blocks Corey Kispert 's 24-foot three point jumper103–109
- Q47.1Guerschon Yabusele makes free throw 2 of 2103–109
- Q47.1Richaun Holmes enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly103–108
- Q47.1Guerschon Yabusele makes free throw 1 of 2103–108
- Q47.1Corey Kispert personal take foul103–107
- Q49.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 1103–107
- Q49.1Bilal Coulibaly away from play foul103–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:25Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Carlton Carrington assists)WSH 98 – 96 PHI · WSH 34% → 54% +20WSH 34% → 54%+20 pts
- Q44:09Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Caleb Martin assists)WSH 98 – 98 PHI · PHI 45% → 59% +14PHI 45% → 59%+14 pts
- Q42:16Eric Gordon makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)WSH 100 – 101 PHI · PHI 38% → 66% +28PHI 38% → 66%+28 pts
- Q41:18Kyle Kuzma makes two point shotWSH 102 – 101 PHI · WSH 33% → 57% +25WSH 33% → 57%+25 pts
- Q423.1Tyrese Maxey makes two point shotWSH 102 – 105 PHI · PHI 74% → 97% +22PHI 74% → 97%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -10.5
- ML WSH +340 / PHI -450
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7
- PHI 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 75.6%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -360
- WSH +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 105.5 – 116.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1307 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −45 | −79 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Paul George −33, Andre Drummond −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +196 Elo | PHI 75.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 81.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 81.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.0 | Points scored | 107.427th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.2 | Points allowed | 110.711th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−13.2 | Margin | −3.323rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.4 | Offense rating | 107.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 111.215th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.0 | Pace | 98.527th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–13 | Road vs home | 5–1025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−79 Elo- Paul George left groin tightness−33 Elo
- Andre Drummond sprained left toe−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–21 | 14–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 13–21 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–4 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.