Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints29
- Fred VanVleetAssists12
- Amen ThompsonRebounds15
Wizards- Corey KispertPoints23
- Jared ButlerAssists5
- Alex SarrRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–112
- Q414.2Jock Landale defensive rebound135–112
- Q415.2Nate Williams blocks Jared Butler 's 8-foot driving layup135–112
- Q426.1Jae'Sean Tate makes 6-foot dunk (Jock Landale assists)135–112
- Q430.0Jock Landale offensive rebound133–112
- Q432.0Nate Williams misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot133–112
- Q442.1Jock Landale defensive rebound133–112
- Q445.1Jared Butler misses 13-foot two point shot133–112
- Q41:05Cam Whitmore makes 30-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)133–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:00Corey Kispert makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Kyshawn George assists)HOU 16 – 28 WSH · WSH 33% → 40% +7WSH 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q25:03Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 41 – 44 WSH · HOU 67% → 74% +7HOU 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q24:28Corey Kispert makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Alexandre Sarr assists)HOU 41 – 47 WSH · WSH 26% → 33% +7WSH 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q23:40Dillon Brooks makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 44 – 47 WSH · HOU 66% → 73% +7HOU 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q21:04Carlton Carrington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)HOU 50 – 55 WSH · WSH 26% → 33% +7WSH 26% → 33%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -13.5
- ML HOU -900 / WSH +600
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9.5
- HOU 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 81.9%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -630
- WSH +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 118.5 – 105.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1313 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −50 | HOU: Missing Tari Eason −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +262 Elo | HOU 81.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 84.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 83.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 108.924th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.7 | Points allowed | 121.830th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.6 | Margin | −12.930th of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 104.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.0 | Defense rating | 116.529th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 104.14th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 5–1327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+14 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−11 Elo
Wizards
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–15 | 13–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–11 | — |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 13–20 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.