Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints31
- Coby WhiteAssists5
- Jalen SmithRebounds7
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Thomas BryantRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–129
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)113–129
- Q44.1shot clock turnover113–129
- Q427.0Enrique Freeman defensive rebound113–129
- Q428.1Jevon Carter misses free throw 2 of 2113–129
- Q428.1Jevon Carter makes free throw 1 of 2113–129
- Q428.1Ben Sheppard personal foul112–129
- Q429.1Johnny Furphy enters the game for Obi Toppin112–129
- Q429.1shot clock turnover112–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:43Pascal Siakam makes 9-foot two point shotCHI 2 – 2 IND · IND 60% → 64% +4IND 60% → 64%+4 pts
- Q110:23Josh Giddey makes driving layupCHI 4 – 2 IND · CHI 36% → 40% +4CHI 36% → 40%+4 pts
- Q110:14Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)CHI 4 – 5 IND · IND 60% → 66% +6IND 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q16:25Josh Giddey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 8 – 13 IND · CHI 22% → 27% +5CHI 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q211:40Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)CHI 18 – 32 IND · IND 84% → 88% +4IND 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -5.5
- ML CHI +170 / IND -200
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3
- IND 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- IND: Elo 61.4%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -180
- CHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 120.0 – 125.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −27 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Myles Turner −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +81 Elo | IND 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 66.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 115.210th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 116.122nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.2 | Margin | −0.817th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 113.57th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 114.323rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.7 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 9–611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−27 Elo- Myles Turner illness−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–17 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–2 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.