San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints23
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints35
- Zach LaVineAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–114
- Q40.1Spurs offensive team rebound110–114
- Q40.1Chris Paul misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot110–114
- Q44.1Spurs offensive team rebound110–114
- Q44.1Victor Wembanyama vs. Nikola Vucevic (Chris Paul gains possession)110–114
- Q44.1(00:04.4) [Bulls] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Bulls] retain their timeout110–114
- Q44.1Bulls Coach's Challenge110–114
- Q45.1Julian Champagnie misses 25-foot three point jumper110–114
- Q45.1Spurs Full timeout110–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:53Coby White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 102 – 99 CHI · CHI 19% → 32% +13CHI 19% → 32%+13 pts
- Q43:53Chris Paul makes 26-foot three pointerSA 110 – 103 CHI · SA 78% → 91% +13SA 78% → 91%+13 pts
- Q42:38Zach LaVine makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotSA 110 – 109 CHI · CHI 18% → 40% +22CHI 18% → 40%+22 pts
- Q447.0Coby White makes 1-foot two point shotSA 110 – 111 CHI · CHI 33% → 65% +32CHI 33% → 65%+32 pts
- Q415.2Coby White makes driving dunk (Zach LaVine assists)SA 110 – 113 CHI · CHI 76% → 98% +22CHI 76% → 98%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -2.5
- ML SA -145 / CHI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- SA: Elo 49.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SA -130
- CHI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 119.5 – 117.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +19 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +4 Elo | CHI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 117.95th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 121.329th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −3.423rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 111.213th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 114.523rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 105.73rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–9 | Road vs home | 6–1123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–16 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–4 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.