New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints44
- Josh HartAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints33
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–139
- Q422.0shot clock turnover126–139
- Q446.1Landry Shamet bad pass (Lonzo Ball steals)126–139
- Q41:03Matt Ryan defensive rebound126–139
- Q41:05Nikola Vucevic misses 13-foot two point shot126–139
- Q41:23Patrick Williams defensive rebound126–139
- Q41:26Landry Shamet misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot126–139
- Q41:34Lonzo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2126–139
- Q41:34Matt Ryan enters the game for OG Anunoby126–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:20Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)NY 80 – 80 CHI · CHI 31% → 40% +9CHI 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q32:42Jalen Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)NY 84 – 93 CHI · CHI 63% → 73% +10CHI 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q32:19Coby White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 85 – 96 CHI · CHI 71% → 80% +9CHI 71% → 80%+9 pts
- Q46:45Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 111 – 119 CHI · NY 8% → 17% +8NY 8% → 17%+8 pts
- Q46:18Karl-Anthony Towns makes driving layupNY 113 – 119 CHI · NY 16% → 24% +8NY 16% → 24%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML NY -220 / CHI +180
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NY: Elo 67.1%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -192
- CHI +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 122.0 – 116.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +51 | +14 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +124 Elo | NY 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 117.27th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 121.129th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −3.923rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 110.615th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 114.322nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 105.72nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–7 | Road vs home | 5–1126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–17 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–2 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.