Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints26
- Malik MonkAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints36
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Josh GiddeyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–119
- Q44.1Malik Monk defensive rebound124–119
- Q47.0Zach LaVine misses driving layup124–119
- Q413.1Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 2 of 2124–119
- Q413.1Keon Ellis enters the game for DeMar DeRozan123–119
- Q413.1Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 1 of 2123–119
- Q413.1Nikola Vucevic personal foul122–119
- Q414.05 second violation122–119
- Q414.0Bulls Full timeout122–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:20Talen Horton-Tucker makes 25-foot three pointer (Zach LaVine assists)SAC 106 – 108 CHI · CHI 39% → 54% +15CHI 39% → 54%+15 pts
- Q47:50DeMar DeRozan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 109 – 108 CHI · SAC 46% → 61% +15SAC 46% → 61%+15 pts
- Q46:30Zach LaVine makes 30-foot running pullup jump shotSAC 111 – 113 CHI · CHI 39% → 56% +17CHI 39% → 56%+17 pts
- Q45:42Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 114 – 113 CHI · SAC 43% → 61% +18SAC 43% → 61%+18 pts
- Q42:28Zach LaVine makes 14-foot two point shotSAC 120 – 119 CHI · CHI 22% → 38% +16CHI 22% → 38%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -5.5
- ML SAC -200 / CHI +170
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1.5
- SAC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- SAC: Elo 56.3%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- SAC -180
- CHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 122.0 – 116.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +27 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +44 Elo | SAC 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 118.24th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 120.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 111.613th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 105.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 8–1123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–22 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–18 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.