Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints22
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists5
- Alex SarrRebounds11
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints33
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–138
- Q45.1shot clock turnover105–138
- Q429.1Richaun Holmes makes 8-foot jumper105–138
- Q441.0Jevon Carter makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)103–138
- Q451.2Anthony Gill personal foul103–136
- Q41:03Jevon Carter defensive rebound103–136
- Q41:05Richaun Holmes misses 12-foot two point shot103–136
- Q41:22Talen Horton-Tucker turnover103–136
- Q41:22Talen Horton-Tucker offensive charge103–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:29Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 39 – 41 CHI · WSH 15% → 20% +5WSH 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q24:16Bilal Coulibaly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 45 – 49 CHI · WSH 13% → 17% +5WSH 13% → 17%+5 pts
- Q23:57Talen Horton-Tucker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)WSH 45 – 52 CHI · CHI 83% → 87% +5CHI 83% → 87%+5 pts
- Q241.1Alexandre Sarr makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 58 – 63 CHI · WSH 11% → 16% +5WSH 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q233.1Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Lonzo Ball assists)WSH 58 – 66 CHI · CHI 84% → 89% +5CHI 84% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -10.5
- ML WSH +400 / CHI -550
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -9
- CHI 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- CHI: Elo 80.7%, market 80.9%
- Fair odds
- CHI -423
- WSH +423 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 116.5 – 127.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1304 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | +14 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +249 Elo | CHI 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 80.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 80.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 80.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 117.65th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.9 | Points allowed | 121.229th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−13.0 | Margin | −3.623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.5 | Offense rating | 111.115th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 114.423rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Pace | 105.72nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–14 | Road vs home | 7–1123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–21 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 14–21 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.