Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints35
- Kevin DurantAssists6
- Kevin DurantRebounds8
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints43
- Vit KrejciAssists6
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds21
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–122
- Q47.0Bradley Beal makes 24-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)117–122
- Q414.0Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2114–122
- Q414.0Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2114–121
- Q414.0Devin Booker personal take foul114–120
- Q422.1Trae Young defensive rebound114–120
- Q425.0Devin Booker misses 24-foot three point jumper114–120
- Q430.2Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2114–120
- Q430.2Hawks offensive team rebound114–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:01Vit Krejci makes 25-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)PHX 87 – 89 ATL · ATL 43% → 55% +12ATL 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q411:11Dyson Daniels makes 24-foot three pointer (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)PHX 87 – 92 ATL · ATL 56% → 68% +12ATL 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q49:07Devin Booker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 97 – 99 ATL · PHX 29% → 43% +13PHX 29% → 43%+13 pts
- Q46:08Trae Young makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)PHX 101 – 104 ATL · ATL 48% → 65% +17ATL 48% → 65%+17 pts
- Q43:43Vit Krejci makes 25-foot three point jumper (Garrison Mathews assists)PHX 104 – 111 ATL · ATL 76% → 90% +14ATL 76% → 90%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML PHX -135 / ATL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- PHX 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- PHX: Elo 46.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 120.5 – 118.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −26 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing De'Andre Hunter −8, Larry Nance Jr. −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | PHX crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 117.27th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 119.828th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −2.620th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 110.517th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 113.020th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.8 | Pace | 105.52nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–11 | Road vs home | 10–716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−26 Elo- De'Andre Hunter left foot−8 Elo
- Larry Nance Jr. right hand surgery−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–24 | 15–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 5–10 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.