Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints25
- LaMelo BallAssists11
- Mark WilliamsRebounds16
Suns- Devin BookerPoints30
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Kevin DurantRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–120
- Q420.2Bradley Beal defensive rebound113–120
- Q423.1Bradley Beal blocks LaMelo Ball 's 24-foot three point jumper113–120
- Q428.0Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2113–120
- Q428.0Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2113–119
- Q428.0Brandon Miller personal foul113–118
- Q434.0Ryan Dunn defensive rebound113–118
- Q435.2Nick Smith Jr. misses 10-foot two point shot113–118
- Q440.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Oso Ighodaro113–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:18Royce O'Neale makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)CHA 108 – 105 PHX · PHX 22% → 39% +16PHX 22% → 39%+16 pts
- Q43:03Kevin Durant makes 15-foot two point shotCHA 110 – 111 PHX · PHX 47% → 63% +16PHX 47% → 63%+16 pts
- Q42:18Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 113 – 111 PHX · CHA 36% → 64% +28CHA 36% → 64%+28 pts
- Q42:05Oso Ighodaro makes 1-foot dunk (Devin Booker assists)CHA 113 – 113 PHX · PHX 35% → 54% +20PHX 35% → 54%+20 pts
- Q41:22Oso Ighodaro makes dunk (Kevin Durant assists)CHA 113 – 115 PHX · PHX 54% → 76% +22PHX 54% → 76%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -6.5
- ML CHA +225 / PHX -275
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4.5
- PHX 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- PHX: Elo 67.7%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- PHX -238
- CHA +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.0 – 116.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1329 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | −17 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +128 Elo | PHX 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 72.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.1 | Points scored | 112.114th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 113.819th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.2 | Margin | −1.619th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 112.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 114.624th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.7 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–14 | Road vs home | 12–814th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–16 | 13–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders | 12–23 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–2 PHX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.