Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints26
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds15
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints21
- Scoot HendersonAssists11
- Shaedon SharpeRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–103
- Q43.1Bryce McGowens makes 2-foot driving dunk (Justin Minaya assists)125–103
- Q421.1Aaron Holiday makes two point shot125–101
- Q434.1Reed Sheppard defensive rebound123–101
- Q437.1Bryce McGowens misses free throw 1 of 1123–101
- Q437.1Cam Whitmore shooting foul123–101
- Q437.1Bryce McGowens makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Duop Reath assists)123–101
- Q446.0Cam Whitmore makes free throw 2 of 2123–99
- Q446.0Rockets offensive team rebound122–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:49Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point shot (Dalano Banton assists)HOU 29 – 31 POR · POR 23% → 29% +6POR 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q24:23Fred VanVleet makes 29-foot three point shot (Tari Eason assists)HOU 38 – 38 POR · HOU 67% → 74% +7HOU 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q24:05Toumani Camara makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)HOU 38 – 41 POR · POR 26% → 33% +7POR 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q38:39Jalen Green makes 25-foot three point shot (Dillon Brooks assists)HOU 60 – 56 POR · HOU 73% → 81% +7HOU 73% → 81%+7 pts
- Q38:11Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 63 – 56 POR · HOU 81% → 87% +6HOU 81% → 87%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -10.5
- ML HOU -500 / POR +375
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -10
- HOU 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 83.2%, market 79.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -396
- POR +396 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 117.0 – 106.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1333 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −46 | HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −18 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −14 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +277 Elo | HOU 83.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 79.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 107.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 116.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.0 | Margin | −9.029th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 106.927th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.2 | Defense rating | 115.827th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.815th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–6 | Road vs home | 8–1122nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+20 Elo- Amen Thompson left calf tightness−18 Elo
Trail Blazers
−46 Elo- Donovan Clingan sprained left ankle−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–17 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–12 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 22–18 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–2 POR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.