Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints29
- Ja MorantAssists4
- Jake LaRaviaRebounds7
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints42
- Fred VanVleetAssists9
- Amen ThompsonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–120
- Q40.1Desmond Bane makes 27-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)118–120
- Q42.1Luke Kennard enters the game for Brandon Clarke115–120
- Q42.1Santi Aldama enters the game for Jaylen Wells115–120
- Q42.1Alperen Sengun enters the game for Aaron Holiday115–120
- Q42.1Dillon Brooks enters the game for Steven Adams115–120
- Q42.1Grizzlies Full timeout115–120
- Q42.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 2 of 2115–120
- Q42.1Aaron Holiday enters the game for Alperen Sengun115–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:32Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)MEM 105 – 107 HOU · HOU 45% → 65% +20HOU 45% → 65%+20 pts
- Q42:51Alperen Sengun makes 10-foot two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)MEM 110 – 111 HOU · HOU 43% → 60% +17HOU 43% → 60%+17 pts
- Q41:19Jaylen Wells makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 113 – 114 HOU · MEM 10% → 37% +27MEM 10% → 37%+27 pts
- Q451.0Brandon Clarke makes 1-foot layup (Ja Morant assists)MEM 115 – 114 HOU · MEM 34% → 65% +30MEM 34% → 65%+30 pts
- Q433.1Jalen Green makes driving layupMEM 115 – 116 HOU · HOU 32% → 69% +37HOU 32% → 69%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML MEM +115 / HOU -140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.8%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -125
- MEM +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 117.0 – 119.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +74 | +21 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Tari Eason −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +33 Elo | HOU 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.0 | Points scored | 113.112th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 107.13rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.9 | Margin | +6.06th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 111.215th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.0 | Defense rating | 105.22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.6 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 8th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 13–65th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+21 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–14 | 22–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 16–11 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 25–14 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–5 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.