Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints32
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints27
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Assists4
- Santi AldamaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–115
- Q40.1Grizzlies offensive team rebound119–115
- Q40.1Ja Morant misses 34-foot three point shot119–115
- Q42.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2119–115
- Q42.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2118–115
- Q42.1Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Jalen Green117–115
- Q42.1Amen Thompson enters the game for Alperen Sengun117–115
- Q42.1Santi Aldama enters the game for Jaylen Wells117–115
- Q42.1Luke Kennard enters the game for Brandon Clarke117–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:56Jae'Sean Tate makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 77 – 74 MEM · HOU 45% → 55% +10HOU 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q36:48Jae'Sean Tate makes 22-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 80 – 79 MEM · HOU 39% → 49% +10HOU 39% → 49%+10 pts
- Q45:33Jalen Green makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 113 – 105 MEM · HOU 76% → 88% +12HOU 76% → 88%+12 pts
- Q43:24Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)HOU 115 – 112 MEM · MEM 13% → 30% +17MEM 13% → 30%+17 pts
- Q41:05Fred VanVleet makes 15-foot pullup jump shotHOU 117 – 114 MEM · HOU 62% → 84% +22HOU 62% → 84%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -2.5
- ML HOU +125 / MEM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1.5
- MEM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- MEM: Elo 56.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MEM -135
- HOU +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 115.5 – 118.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +71 | HOU: Missing Tari Eason −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +42 Elo | MEM 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 123.11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.8 | Points allowed | 114.721st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.1 | Margin | +8.44th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 114.46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.2 | Defense rating | 106.64th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 107.71st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–5 | Road vs home | 15–43rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+24 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−11 Elo
Grizzlies
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–15 | 24–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–11 | 18–8 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–1 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.