Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points33
- Desmond BaneAssists5
- Zach EdeyRebounds9
Timberwolves- Donte DiVincenzoPoints27
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Donte DiVincenzoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–125
- Q40.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound127–125
- Q40.1Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot127–125
- Q46.1Timberwolves Full timeout127–125
- Q46.1Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound127–125
- Q47.1Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point jumper127–125
- Q418.1Mike Conley enters the game for Jaden McDaniels127–125
- Q418.1Timberwolves Full timeout127–125
- Q418.1Ja Morant makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot127–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:12Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MEM 108 – 109 MIN · MIN 41% → 57% +16MIN 41% → 57%+16 pts
- Q43:03Jaden McDaniels makes two point shot (Rudy Gobert assists)MEM 119 – 121 MIN · MIN 51% → 67% +16MIN 51% → 67%+16 pts
- Q41:41Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MEM 121 – 125 MIN · MIN 72% → 87% +15MIN 72% → 87%+15 pts
- Q454.0Ja Morant makes driving layupMEM 125 – 125 MIN · MEM 22% → 49% +28MEM 22% → 49%+28 pts
- Q418.1Ja Morant makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotMEM 127 – 125 MIN · MEM 50% → 90% +41MEM 50% → 90%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -1.5
- ML MEM +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- MEM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 115.5 – 117.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +74 | −20 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +14 Elo | MEM 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.9 | Points scored | 108.922nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 107.24th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+8.1 | Margin | +1.811th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 109.619th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 107.85th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.7 | Pace | 98.724th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 10–716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–14 | 15–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 24–14 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–4 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.