Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints23
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Magic- Goga BitadzePoints15
- Cole AnthonyAssists5
- Tristan da SilvaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–89
- Q49.1shot clock turnover104–89
- Q433.0Caleb Houstan makes free throw 2 of 2104–89
- Q433.0Caleb Houstan makes free throw 1 of 2104–88
- Q433.0Luka Garza shooting foul104–87
- Q437.0Trevelin Queen offensive rebound104–87
- Q440.0Jett Howard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot104–87
- Q454.2Luka Garza makes 1-foot dunk (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)104–87
- Q459.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound102–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:25Caleb Houstan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)MIN 37 – 33 ORL · ORL 21% → 27% +6ORL 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q24:13Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 40 – 37 ORL · MIN 63% → 71% +7MIN 63% → 71%+7 pts
- Q23:43Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 43 – 37 ORL · MIN 70% → 77% +7MIN 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q37:47Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point shot (Cole Anthony assists)MIN 60 – 55 ORL · ORL 18% → 25% +7ORL 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q35:19Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 65 – 57 ORL · MIN 76% → 83% +7MIN 76% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML MIN -230 / ORL +190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.3%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -202
- ORL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 102.5 – 97.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 199.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −60 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +5 Elo | ORL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.1 | Points scored | 105.230th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 103.21st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +2.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 107.027th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 105.02nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.9 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 13–54th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–22 | 22–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 15–7 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.