Orlando Magic at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints24
- Anthony BlackAssists5
- Jonathan IsaacRebounds9
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints24
- Jalen BrunsonAssists4
- Josh HartRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–94
- Q48.0Cameron Payne makes 25-foot three pointer103–94
- Q416.0shot clock turnover103–91
- Q440.0Cameron Payne lost ball turnover (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope steals)103–91
- Q445.1Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2103–91
- Q445.1Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2102–91
- Q445.1Mikal Bridges personal foul101–91
- Q456.1Josh Hart makes 4-foot two point shot101–91
- Q41:05Cole Anthony makes free throw 2 of 2101–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:29Cole Anthony makes 26-foot three pointerORL 67 – 59 NY · ORL 47% → 57% +10ORL 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q32:14Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point shot (Anthony Black assists)ORL 70 – 65 NY · ORL 40% → 51% +11ORL 40% → 51%+11 pts
- Q31:41Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 73 – 65 NY · ORL 52% → 63% +11ORL 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q47:29Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)ORL 86 – 78 NY · ORL 63% → 77% +14ORL 63% → 77%+14 pts
- Q44:30Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 91 – 82 NY · ORL 78% → 90% +12ORL 78% → 90%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -10.5
- ML ORL +375 / NY -500
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6
- NY 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- NY: Elo 71.8%, market 79.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -396
- ORL +396 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 98.0 – 108.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 206.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −66 | −27 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Karl-Anthony Towns −68 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +162 Elo | NY 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 79.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.3 | Points scored | 117.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.4 | Points allowed | 110.710th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +7.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 118.72nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Defense rating | 111.516th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 19th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 11–44th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−27 Elo- Karl-Anthony Towns right knee injury−68 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–16 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–7 | 16–16 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 15–22 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–4 NY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.