Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints34
- Alperen SengunAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints22
- Jamal MurrayAssists5
- DeAndre JordanRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–108
- Q45.1shot clock turnover128–108
- Q427.1Cam Whitmore defensive rebound128–108
- Q430.0Hunter Tyson misses free throw 2 of 2128–108
- Q430.0Hunter Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2128–108
- Q430.0Aaron Holiday shooting foul128–107
- Q430.0Hunter Tyson offensive rebound128–107
- Q430.0Trey Alexander misses two point shot128–107
- Q435.1Trey Alexander defensive rebound128–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:30Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 3 – 0 DEN · HOU 64% → 69% +6HOU 64% → 69%+6 pts
- Q110:41Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 3 – 3 DEN · DEN 31% → 36% +6DEN 31% → 36%+6 pts
- Q19:16Russell Westbrook makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)HOU 7 – 6 DEN · DEN 29% → 35% +6DEN 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q18:28Jalen Green makes 25-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 12 – 8 DEN · HOU 65% → 71% +6HOU 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q14:35Fred VanVleet makes 27-foot three pointerHOU 19 – 13 DEN · HOU 69% → 75% +6HOU 69% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML HOU -200 / DEN +165
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -177
- DEN +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 115.5 – 110.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1625 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −108 | HOU: Missing Tari Eason −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +87 Elo | HOU 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 120.33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.3 | Points allowed | 115.723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.9 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 115.94th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 111.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.75th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3012–5 | Road vs home | 12–711th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+24 Elo- Tari Eason lower leg−11 Elo
Nuggets
−108 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–16 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 16–12 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.