Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints45
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Mavericks- Daniel GaffordPoints13
- Quentin GrimesAssists5
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–99
- Q418.2shot clock turnover118–99
- Q442.2Jaden Hardy makes free throw 2 of 2118–99
- Q442.2Mavericks offensive team rebound118–98
- Q442.2Jaden Hardy misses free throw 1 of 2118–98
- Q442.2Trey Alexander personal foul118–98
- Q452.1Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 2 of 2118–98
- Q452.1Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 1 of 2117–98
- Q452.1Jaden Hardy shooting foul116–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:56Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 3 – 2 DAL · DEN 51% → 57% +6DEN 51% → 57%+6 pts
- Q18:25Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointer (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 8 – 4 DAL · DEN 57% → 63% +6DEN 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q17:52Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 11 – 4 DAL · DEN 63% → 69% +6DEN 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q17:04Jamal Murray makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 14 – 6 DAL · DEN 66% → 71% +6DEN 66% → 71%+6 pts
- Q16:05Russell Westbrook makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 19 – 6 DAL · DEN 75% → 80% +5DEN 75% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML DEN -135 / DAL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 57.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -124
- DAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 118.5 – 116.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | −35 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +51 Elo | DEN 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.4 | Points scored | 116.19th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 111.814th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.2 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 4th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 114.55th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 110.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.19th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 12–710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–20 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–15 | 18–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–2 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.