Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Russell WestbrookPoints21
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds18
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints25
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists10
- Klay ThompsonRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–101
- Q411.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound112–101
- Q415.0Naji Marshall misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot112–101
- Q421.0Russell Westbrook makes layup (Nikola Jokic assists)112–101
- Q441.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound110–101
- Q446.1Klay Thompson misses 25-foot three point jumper110–101
- Q450.0Mavericks offensive team rebound110–101
- Q450.0Russell Westbrook blocks Dereck Lively II 's 3-foot layup110–101
- Q453.0Mavericks Full timeout110–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:38Aaron Gordon makes 23-foot three point jumperDEN 89 – 91 DAL · DEN 35% → 48% +14DEN 35% → 48%+14 pts
- Q45:21Russell Westbrook makes two point shotDEN 97 – 96 DAL · DEN 50% → 62% +12DEN 50% → 62%+12 pts
- Q44:28Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot two point shotDEN 99 – 96 DAL · DEN 62% → 74% +12DEN 62% → 74%+12 pts
- Q43:03Spencer Dinwiddie makes 2-foot two point shotDEN 101 – 99 DAL · DAL 17% → 30% +13DAL 17% → 30%+13 pts
- Q42:39Peyton Watson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 104 – 99 DAL · DEN 71% → 89% +18DEN 71% → 89%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -5.5
- ML DEN -225 / DAL +190
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 59.4%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- DEN -201
- DAL +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.0 – 113.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1604 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −83 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +66 Elo | DEN 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 61.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 116.48th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 111.814th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 114.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 110.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 12–66th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–20 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 23–14 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–2 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.