Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints28
- Amen ThompsonAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints33
- Malik MonkAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–132
- Q41.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2127–132
- Q41.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2127–131
- Q41.1Tari Eason personal foul127–130
- Q41.1DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound127–130
- Q44.1Jalen Green misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot127–130
- Q48.2Aaron Holiday enters the game for Steven Adams127–130
- Q48.2Rockets Full timeout127–130
- Q48.2Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2127–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:38Dillon Brooks makes 27-foot three point shot (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 113 – 114 SAC · HOU 17% → 38% +21HOU 17% → 38%+21 pts
- Q42:20DeMar DeRozan makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)HOU 115 – 117 SAC · SAC 44% → 71% +27SAC 44% → 71%+27 pts
- Q41:55Jalen Green makes 29-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 118 – 120 SAC · HOU 8% → 28% +19HOU 8% → 28%+19 pts
- Q459.0Tari Eason makes 25-foot three point shot (Jalen Green assists)HOU 122 – 123 SAC · HOU 7% → 34% +27HOU 7% → 34%+27 pts
- Q427.1Jalen Green makes driving layupHOU 124 – 125 SAC · HOU 5% → 28% +23HOU 5% → 28%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -4.5
- ML HOU +165 / SAC -195
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- SAC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- SAC: Elo 53.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- SAC -175
- HOU +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.5 – 115.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | +24 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +22 Elo | SAC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 116.18th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.4 | Points allowed | 113.917th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.3 | Margin | +2.211th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 113.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 111.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.912th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–5 | Road vs home | 10–1221st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–16 | 16–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–12 | 12–19 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.