Sacramento Kings at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints28
- Domantas SabonisAssists9
- De'Aaron FoxRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints33
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists13
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–130
- Q410.1Devin Carter makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot115–130
- Q419.1Alex Len defensive rebound113–130
- Q420.1Alex Len blocks Liam Robbins's dunk113–130
- Q430.2Jordan McLaughlin makes 25-foot three pointer113–130
- Q436.1shot clock turnover110–130
- Q436.1Bucks offensive team rebound110–130
- Q437.1Ryan Rollins misses 28-foot three point jumper110–130
- Q440.1Stanley Umude offensive rebound110–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:42Keegan Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 5 – 7 MIL · SAC 36% → 42% +6SAC 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q19:31Damian Lillard makes 29-foot three pointerSAC 5 – 10 MIL · MIL 58% → 65% +6MIL 58% → 65%+6 pts
- Q18:33De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 11 – 12 MIL · SAC 37% → 44% +6SAC 37% → 44%+6 pts
- Q18:04Brook Lopez makes 22-foot three point shot (Taurean Prince assists)SAC 11 – 15 MIL · MIL 56% → 63% +6MIL 56% → 63%+6 pts
- Q16:25Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)SAC 15 – 21 MIL · MIL 61% → 67% +6MIL 61% → 67%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -2.5
- ML SAC +110 / MIL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- SAC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.0 – 114.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +26 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +29 Elo | MIL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 112.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 110.79th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +1.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 111.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 109.810th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 11–713th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–23 | 16–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–19 | 17–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.