Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints24
- Damian LillardAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints44
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–140
- Q418.1Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound106–140
- Q421.0Delon Wright misses 24-foot three point jumper106–140
- Q431.0Matt Ryan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)106–140
- Q441.0MarJon Beauchamp makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot106–137
- Q457.1Stanley Umude defensive rebound103–137
- Q41:00Landry Shamet misses running pullup jump shot103–137
- Q41:04Jacob Toppin defensive rebound103–137
- Q41:06Delon Wright misses driving floating jump shot103–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:25Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerMIL 20 – 20 NY · NY 55% → 62% +6NY 55% → 62%+6 pts
- Q14:57AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 25 – 24 NY · MIL 34% → 41% +6MIL 34% → 41%+6 pts
- Q210:56Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 38 – 38 NY · MIL 33% → 39% +7MIL 33% → 39%+7 pts
- Q29:58Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point shot (Cameron Payne assists)MIL 38 – 43 NY · NY 65% → 72% +7NY 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q29:13Cameron Payne makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)MIL 42 – 46 NY · NY 63% → 70% +7NY 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML MIL +155 / NY -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -0.5
- NY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.5 pts
- NY: Elo 48.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -166
- MIL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.0 – 116.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +13 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +8 Elo | MIL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 116.67th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 110.59th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +6.15th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 117.92nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 111.818th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.5 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 12–66th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–21 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 17–17 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–3 NY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.