Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints39
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists6
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds10
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints27
- Jalen BrunsonAssists5
- Josh HartRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–101
- Q42.1Jaylin Williams defensive rebound126–101
- Q42.1Matt Ryan misses 21-foot jumper126–101
- Q415.1Matt Ryan defensive rebound126–101
- Q418.1Isaiah Joe misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot126–101
- Q433.1Matt Ryan makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Tyler Kolek assists)126–101
- Q438.1Isaiah Joe bad pass (Tyler Kolek steals)126–99
- Q448.2Tyler Kolek makes free throw 2 of 2126–99
- Q448.2Tyler Kolek makes free throw 1 of 2126–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:23Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 9 – 6 NY · OKC 56% → 63% +7OKC 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q14:27Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)OKC 11 – 11 NY · NY 37% → 44% +7NY 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q14:15Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 14 – 11 NY · OKC 56% → 63% +7OKC 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q12:07Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 22 – 17 NY · OKC 60% → 67% +7OKC 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q131.2Isaiah Joe makes 34-foot three point jumperOKC 29 – 17 NY · OKC 75% → 81% +5OKC 75% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -2.5
- ML OKC -145 / NY +120
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 64.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -130
- NY +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.5 – 111.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1711 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +24 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +104 Elo | OKC 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 117.07th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.5 | Points allowed | 110.19th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.9 | Margin | +6.95th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 118.52nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.0 | Defense rating | 111.515th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–4 | Road vs home | 12–54th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–13 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–12 | 17–17 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–0 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.