Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints22
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists5
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints27
- Josh HartAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–112
- Q48.1shot clock turnover98–112
- Q432.1Kelly Olynyk makes dunk98–112
- Q432.1Kelly Olynyk offensive rebound96–112
- Q432.1Ja'Kobe Walter misses two point shot96–112
- Q437.1Jericho Sims lost ball turnover (Garrett Temple steals)96–112
- Q453.0Garrett Temple makes free throw 2 of 296–112
- Q453.0Garrett Temple makes free throw 1 of 295–112
- Q453.0Matt Ryan shooting foul94–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:01OG Anunoby makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)TOR 48 – 53 NY · NY 82% → 87% +5NY 82% → 87%+5 pts
- Q245.0Scottie Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)TOR 51 – 53 NY · TOR 13% → 18% +5TOR 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q311:03Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 53 – 58 NY · NY 81% → 87% +5NY 81% → 87%+5 pts
- Q39:59Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)TOR 55 – 61 NY · NY 83% → 88% +5NY 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q39:43Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 58 – 61 NY · TOR 12% → 17% +5TOR 12% → 17%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -12.5
- ML TOR +550 / NY -900
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -10
- NY 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NY: Elo 83.6%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -585
- TOR +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.5 – 123.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1351 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +30 | TOR: Usual rotation · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +283 Elo | NY 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 82.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 82.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.0 | Points scored | 117.27th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 110.59th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.9 | Margin | +6.75th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 118.42nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 111.617th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.0 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–15 | Road vs home | 11–56th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–15 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 16–17 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–6 NY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.