Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints25
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists13
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints25
- Jamal SheadAssists6
- RJ BarrettRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–104
- Q410.2Ja'Kobe Walter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)128–104
- Q430.2Delon Wright makes 23-foot three point jumper (Liam Robbins assists)128–101
- Q450.0Ja'Kobe Walter traveling125–101
- Q41:03Stanley Umude makes 30-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)125–101
- Q41:16Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 2122–101
- Q41:16Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2122–100
- Q41:16Stanley Umude shooting foul122–99
- Q41:20Gradey Dick defensive rebound122–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:33Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)MIL 3 – 2 TOR · MIL 63% → 68% +6MIL 63% → 68%+6 pts
- Q18:41Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 5 – 5 TOR · TOR 28% → 34% +6TOR 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q15:40Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point shot (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 11 – 13 TOR · MIL 55% → 62% +7MIL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q14:57Andre Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 14 – 13 TOR · MIL 61% → 68% +6MIL 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q27:04AJ Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 40 – 30 TOR · MIL 79% → 84% +5MIL 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML MIL -230 / TOR +190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 71.7%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -202
- TOR +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 118.5 – 112.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1360 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +1 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +161 Elo | MIL 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 111.220th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 118.727th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −7.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 108.024th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 115.326th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.5 | Pace | 101.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 7–1223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–20 | 21–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.