Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Jalen WilliamsAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds11
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints25
- Evan MobleyAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–129
- Q413.0Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Isaiah Joe122–129
- Q413.0Luguentz Dort enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein122–129
- Q413.0Georges Niang enters the game for Jarrett Allen122–129
- Q413.0Cavaliers Full timeout122–129
- Q416.1Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound122–129
- Q420.1Jalen Williams misses 29-foot three point jumper122–129
- Q427.1Isaiah Joe enters the game for Luguentz Dort122–129
- Q427.1Thunder Full timeout122–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:26Isaiah Joe makes 28-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 105 – 103 CLE · OKC 42% → 55% +13OKC 42% → 55%+13 pts
- Q410:54Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)OKC 105 – 106 CLE · CLE 45% → 58% +13CLE 45% → 58%+13 pts
- Q46:06Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 112 – 114 CLE · OKC 21% → 36% +15OKC 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q44:32Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)OKC 114 – 121 CLE · CLE 77% → 89% +12CLE 77% → 89%+12 pts
- Q42:03Isaiah Hartenstein makes 8-foot two point shot (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 122 – 124 CLE · OKC 15% → 29% +15OKC 15% → 29%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -2.5
- ML OKC +125 / CLE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -0.5
- CLE 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 47.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -133
- OKC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.5 – 117.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1720 | 1647 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +37 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +14 Elo | OKC 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 122.52nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.8 | Points allowed | 110.710th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.4 | Margin | +11.81st of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 120.21st of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.3 | Defense rating | 108.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–3 | Road vs home | 18–11st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–12 | 25–10 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–12 | 22–10 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 2–0 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.