Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints41
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints34
- Paolo BancheroAssists3
- Tristan da SilvaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–106
- Q40.1Brook Lopez lost ball turnover (Cole Anthony steals)107–106
- Q45.1Anthony Black enters the game for Caleb Houstan109–106
- Q45.1(00:05.5) [Bucks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)107–106
- Q45.1Brook Lopez defensive rebound107–106
- Q45.1Cole Anthony misses free throw 2 of 2107–106
- Q45.1Magic offensive team rebound107–106
- Q45.1Cole Anthony misses free throw 1 of 2107–106
- Q45.1Damian Lillard personal foul107–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:49Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 84 – 85 ORL · ORL 34% → 48% +14ORL 34% → 48%+14 pts
- Q423.1Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Caleb Houstan assists)MIL 106 – 105 ORL · ORL <1% → 27% +26ORL <1% → 27%+26 pts
- Q417.2Brook Lopez makes free throw 1 of 2MIL 107 – 105 ORL · MIL 76% → 92% +16MIL 76% → 92%+16 pts
- Q410.0Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2MIL 107 – 106 ORL · ORL 4% → 18% +15ORL 4% → 18%+15 pts
- Q49.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2MIL 108 – 106 ORL · MIL 83% → 97% +14MIL 83% → 97%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML MIL -230 / ORL +185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.5%, market 66.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -199
- ORL +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 109.5 – 103.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | −26 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +89 Elo | MIL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 66.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 104.830th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 103.21st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +1.612th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 106.727th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 105.12nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 13–66th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–20 | 22–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 15–7 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–21 | 15–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–2 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.