San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints24
- Chris PaulAssists7
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds11
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints26
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–121
- Q43.2Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)105–121
- Q48.2shot clock turnover102–121
- Q432.2Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 1 of 1102–121
- Q432.2Stanley Umude shooting foul101–121
- Q432.2Sandro Mamukelashvili makes two point shot101–121
- Q432.2Liam Robbins bad pass (Sandro Mamukelashvili steals)99–121
- Q436.1Blake Wesley bad pass (Stanley Umude steals)99–121
- Q449.2Ryan Rollins makes 12-foot pullup jump shot99–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:06Khris Middleton makes 29-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)SA 19 – 19 MIL · MIL 56% → 63% +7MIL 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q13:50Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 22 – 19 MIL · SA 37% → 44% +7SA 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q13:37AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)SA 22 – 22 MIL · MIL 56% → 63% +7MIL 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q210:21Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)SA 33 – 38 MIL · MIL 66% → 73% +6MIL 66% → 73%+6 pts
- Q27:26Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)SA 37 – 41 MIL · MIL 64% → 71% +7MIL 64% → 71%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -4.5
- ML SA +165 / MIL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4
- MIL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -177
- SA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.0 – 115.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +39 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +112 Elo | MIL 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 112.313th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 110.19th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +2.110th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 111.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 109.19th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.8 | Pace | 100.617th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–10 | Road vs home | 10–714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–17 | 15–20 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19 | 15–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.