Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Mark WilliamsRebounds19
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints40
- Zach LaVineAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–123
- Q40.0Bulls offensive team rebound125–123
- Q40.0Ayo Dosunmu misses 3-foot tip shot125–123
- Q40.0Ayo Dosunmu offensive rebound125–123
- Q40.0Zach LaVine misses 20-foot step back jumpshot125–123
- Q43.1Zach LaVine offensive rebound125–123
- Q45.1Nikola Vucevic misses 28-foot three point jumper125–123
- Q412.1Cody Martin enters the game for Vasilije Micic125–123
- Q412.1Moussa Diabate enters the game for Nick Smith Jr.125–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:19Nikola Vucevic makes layup (Zach LaVine assists)CHA 121 – 119 CHI · CHI 19% → 34% +15CHI 19% → 34%+15 pts
- Q41:47Nikola Vucevic makes 6-foot hook shot (Zach LaVine assists)CHA 122 – 121 CHI · CHI 23% → 42% +19CHI 23% → 42%+19 pts
- Q41:38LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2CHA 123 – 121 CHI · CHA 59% → 69% +11CHA 59% → 69%+11 pts
- Q416.1Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 2 of 2CHA 124 – 123 CHI · CHI 9% → 25% +17CHI 9% → 25%+17 pts
- Q412.2Vasilije Micic makes free throw 1 of 2CHA 125 – 123 CHI · CHA 78% → 94% +16CHA 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML CHA +160 / CHI -195
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4
- CHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CHI: Elo 66.3%, market 63.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -172
- CHA +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.5 – 120.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1331 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +17 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +117 Elo | CHI 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 63.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 117.55th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 120.529th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.9 | Margin | −3.122nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 111.215th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.8 | Pace | 105.52nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–15 | Road vs home | 8–1424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–18 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 14–23 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–6 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.