Charlotte Hornets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Mark WilliamsPoints31
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Mark WilliamsRebounds13
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints26
- Isaiah CollierAssists10
- Drew EubanksRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–112
- Q46.1Isaiah Collier bad pass (Brandon Miller steals)117–112
- Q411.1Mark Williams enters the game for LaMelo Ball117–112
- Q411.1Micah Potter enters the game for Walker Kessler117–112
- Q411.1Jazz Full timeout117–112
- Q411.1Josh Green enters the game for Seth Curry117–112
- Q411.1Cody Martin out of bounds lost ball turnover117–112
- Q412.1Seth Curry enters the game for Mark Williams117–112
- Q412.1Hornets Full timeout117–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:37Patty Mills makes 25-foot three point jumper (Drew Eubanks assists)CHA 93 – 97 UTAH · UTAH 49% → 64% +15UTAH 49% → 64%+15 pts
- Q47:15Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nick Smith Jr. assists)CHA 96 – 97 UTAH · CHA 35% → 51% +16CHA 35% → 51%+16 pts
- Q45:45Brice Sensabaugh makes 24-foot three point jumper (Walker Kessler assists)CHA 100 – 102 UTAH · UTAH 39% → 56% +18UTAH 39% → 56%+18 pts
- Q45:15Keyonte George makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 102 – 105 UTAH · UTAH 45% → 63% +19UTAH 45% → 63%+19 pts
- Q43:21Cody Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)CHA 109 – 105 UTAH · CHA 62% → 81% +20CHA 62% → 81%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -5.5
- ML CHA -220 / UTAH +180
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1
- CHA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.7 pts
- CHA: Elo 46.1%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- CHA -192
- UTAH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 114.0 – 108.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1324 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −93 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +27 Elo | UTAH 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.3 | Points scored | 110.920th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 117.626th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.2 | Margin | −6.726th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.5 | Offense rating | 109.620th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 116.229th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.7 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–15 | Road vs home | 3–1430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−93 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–17 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders | 13–23 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–1 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.