Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints29
- Paul GeorgeAssists6
- Paul GeorgeRebounds10
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints27
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Jonathan IsaacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–104
- Q49.15 second violation99–104
- Q49.1Ricky Council IV enters the game for Justin Edwards99–104
- Q49.176ers Full timeout99–104
- Q49.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 299–104
- Q49.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 299–103
- Q49.1Tyrese Maxey personal take foul99–102
- Q415.0Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound99–102
- Q419.1Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot99–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:05Paul George makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 88 – 84 ORL · PHI 55% → 73% +18PHI 55% → 73%+18 pts
- Q44:17Eric Gordon makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 91 – 86 ORL · PHI 63% → 80% +17PHI 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q43:08Paul George makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 94 – 91 ORL · PHI 49% → 72% +23PHI 49% → 72%+23 pts
- Q41:07Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)PHI 99 – 100 ORL · PHI 8% → 36% +28PHI 8% → 36%+28 pts
- Q429.1Paolo Banchero makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Cole Anthony assists)PHI 99 – 102 ORL · ORL 70% → 94% +24ORL 70% → 94%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML PHI +105 / ORL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 64.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 103.5 – 105.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −16 | PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −90 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +105 Elo | ORL 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.6 | Points scored | 104.830th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 103.31st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.2 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 106.827th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 105.33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.5 | Pace | 98.229th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 13–78th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−12 Elo- Joel Embiid sinus fracture−90 Elo
Magic
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–22 | 23–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 15–7 |
| Underdog | 8–12 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 16–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–2 ORL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.