Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints24
- Scoot HendersonAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds15
Heat- Duncan RobinsonPoints22
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Kel'el WareRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–107
- Q45.0shot clock turnover116–107
- Q429.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 4-foot two point shot116–107
- Q435.1Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2116–105
- Q435.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound115–105
- Q435.1Deni Avdija misses free throw 1 of 2115–105
- Q435.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. personal foul115–105
- Q456.1Duncan Robinson out of bounds bad pass turnover115–105
- Q41:06Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2115–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:17Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 46 – 46 MIA · POR 23% → 29% +6POR 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q26:44Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three pointerPOR 49 – 48 MIA · POR 25% → 31% +7POR 25% → 31%+7 pts
- Q251.1Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point shot (Deni Avdija assists)POR 59 – 55 MIA · POR 34% → 42% +8POR 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q38:49Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 72 – 61 MIA · POR 57% → 66% +9POR 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q36:54Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 77 – 63 MIA · POR 68% → 77% +8POR 68% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML POR +290 / MIA -375
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -8
- MIA 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 78.4%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -308
- POR +308 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 105.5 – 114.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1345 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +9 | POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | POR crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +224 Elo | MIA 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 76.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.9 | Points scored | 111.219th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 110.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.8 | Margin | +1.213th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 110.612th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 98.128th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–16 | Road vs home | 11–816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+18 Elo- Donovan Clingan left ankle sprain−10 Elo
Heat
+9 Elo- Tyler Herro right groin tightness−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–21 | 17–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–3 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.