Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints34
- Nikola JovicAssists8
- Kel'el WareRebounds11
Lakers- Rui HachimuraPoints23
- Austin ReavesAssists14
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–117
- Q416.0Jaxson Hayes enters the game for LeBron James108–117
- Q416.0Dalton Knecht enters the game for Anthony Davis108–117
- Q418.1shot clock turnover108–117
- Q440.1Austin Reaves defensive rebound108–117
- Q443.1Bam Adebayo misses 26-foot three point jumper108–117
- Q449.1Max Christie makes driving layup (Austin Reaves assists)108–117
- Q41:11Anthony Davis defensive goaltending violation108–115
- Q41:11Tyler Herro makes driving layup (Nikola Jovic assists)108–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:55Max Christie makes 28-foot three point jumper (Gabe Vincent assists)MIA 94 – 97 LAL · LAL 55% → 70% +15LAL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- Q46:39Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 97 – 99 LAL · MIA 21% → 35% +14MIA 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q44:53Rui Hachimura makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 101 – 106 LAL · LAL 67% → 82% +16LAL 67% → 82%+16 pts
- Q43:51Nikola Jovic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 106 – 108 LAL · MIA 16% → 32% +17MIA 16% → 32%+17 pts
- Q43:25LeBron James makes 28-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)MIA 106 – 111 LAL · LAL 68% → 86% +17LAL 68% → 86%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML MIA +155 / LAL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- LAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 51.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -166
- MIA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 105.5 – 110.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −28 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −36 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +9 Elo | LAL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.8 | Points scored | 111.617th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 114.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −2.721st of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 111.713th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 114.423rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.1 | Pace | 99.722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 12–66th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−18 Elo- Jimmy Butler III suspended by team−36 Elo
Lakers
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–22 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–0 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.