San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints23
- Chris PaulAssists10
- Charles BasseyRebounds9
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–102
- Q411.1Stephon Castle defensive rebound126–102
- Q416.1Cam Reddish misses 23-foot three point jumper126–102
- Q422.1Jaxson Hayes offensive rebound126–102
- Q422.1Dalton Knecht misses 28-foot three point jumper126–102
- Q429.1Sandro Mamukelashvili makes two point shot126–102
- Q430.1Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound124–102
- Q432.1Zach Collins misses 21-foot jumper124–102
- Q440.1Blake Wesley defensive rebound124–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q329.1Anthony Davis makes 27-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)SA 86 – 89 LAL · LAL 56% → 67% +12LAL 56% → 67%+12 pts
- Q30.0Keldon Johnson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 89 – 89 LAL · SA 33% → 44% +12SA 33% → 44%+12 pts
- Q411:07Harrison Barnes makes two point shotSA 94 – 91 LAL · SA 49% → 58% +9SA 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q410:29Charles Bassey makes dunk (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 96 – 93 LAL · SA 49% → 58% +9SA 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q49:26Chris Paul makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 99 – 93 LAL · SA 59% → 72% +13SA 59% → 72%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML SA +145 / LAL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- LAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- LAL: Elo 52.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -156
- SA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 108.5 – 113.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | −42 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +20 Elo | LAL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 111.816th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 114.020th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −2.120th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 114.022nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 99.722nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–11 | Road vs home | 12–54th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–18 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–4 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.