San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints23
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Heat- Kel'el WarePoints25
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–128
- Q413.1Sidy Cissoko makes 1-foot dunk (Blake Wesley assists)107–128
- Q414.1Blake Wesley defensive rebound105–128
- Q417.1Josh Christopher misses two point shot105–128
- Q428.0Blake Wesley out of bounds lost ball turnover105–128
- Q437.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover105–128
- Q437.1Sandro Mamukelashvili personal foul105–128
- Q437.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound105–128
- Q442.1Pelle Larsson misses 24-foot three point jumper105–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:26Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three pointer (Terry Rozier assists)SA 39 – 35 MIA · MIA 38% → 46% +8MIA 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q24:20Kel'el Ware makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)SA 41 – 38 MIA · MIA 40% → 48% +8MIA 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q23:20Terry Rozier makes 25-foot three pointerSA 41 – 43 MIA · MIA 54% → 62% +8MIA 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q311:28Devin Vassell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 44 – 46 MIA · SA 30% → 38% +8SA 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q311:17Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)SA 44 – 49 MIA · MIA 62% → 70% +8MIA 62% → 70%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML SA +130 / MIA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 61.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -140
- SA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 108.5 – 111.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +19 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +80 Elo | MIA 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 110.821st of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 110.17th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.713th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 111.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 110.712th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 98.129th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–11 | Road vs home | 10–816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–20 | 16–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.